WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN THE BUNGOMA SENATE BY-ELECTION?
From my intelligence, the following may just be on the ballot come the 2013
senatorial by-election in Bungoma
a. Juma
Wa Mukhwana
b. David
Makali
c. Moses
Wetangula
d. Musikari
Kombo
e. Alfred
Khang’ati
The question is, what are the chances of the above
being elected senator in the by election?
1.
Moses
Wetangula
He has an 80% chance of retaining the seat due to
the following factors
· He is a seasoned politician
· He does not shy away from using any
means to achieve an end
· He is a very pragmatic and shrewd
politician
·
He has many foot soldiers in the form of
County Reps and other boys and girls that directly benefit from him
·
He enjoys support of many elected MPs in
Western
·
He enjoys Support of CORD brigade and
Raila can not dump him without damaging himself
· The anti-Jubilee sentiment in Bungoma
County is currently even stronger than it was during the general elections
·
He will receive sympathy votes; many
feel he is being persecuted
·
He has the resources to share around.
He has a 20% chance of not being senator due to the
by election because of the following factors
·
There is a chance that Jubilee uses
courts to influence his being on the ballot
· He has a reputation weakness e.g. He is
a shrewd and cunning politician who does not stand with the populace but only
furthers individual or selfish interests
·
He is suspected to have been behind
recent killings after the general election
·
The Death of Lawyer Wanyama may just be
used against him.
2.
MUSIKARI
KOMBO
Musikari Kombo has a 10% chance of being elected
Senator in the next by election. These are the factors in his favor.
·
He enjoys the support of Eugine Wamalwa
(who still fools a few with his
rhetorical skills)
·
Lusaka the Governor may want to
influence against Wetangula due to turf wars
·
If many candidates come in and split
votes, Mt. Elgon may be the swing vote in his favour
·
Jubilee may bankroll him and thus he may
enjoy state support in manipulating process
·
He may get sympathy votes on the ground
that his vote was stolen
Musikari Kombo has a 90% chance of not being our senator after the by-election because of the following factors
·
Many think he is old enough and should
retire
·
He lacks charisma and leadership; the
reason why FORD Kenya crumbled under him
·
He is seen as a Jubilee stooge
·
The deaths in Bungoma and Killing of
Lawyer Wanyama are issues he has to exonerate himself from (we can imbue a
motive on him to want to paint Wetangula as the Killer)
·
Many think he is the one who has misled
Eugene into making all the political blunders he is perceived to have made.
3.
Juma
Mukhwana
If Kombo and Wetangula will be on the ballot,
Mukhwana has a 1% chance of being our Senator. The following factors would work
in his favour only if Wetangula is barred
·
He would stand a chance as a compromise
candidate
·
He is a good hearted and jovial person
(very warm and generous)
·
He is a professional and academic of
repute
·
He is an entrepreneur and social
capitalist that has been widely acknowledged
·
He already has some political experience
·
If Jubilee supported him, he would have
a big machinery to ride
·
He was also cozy with Eugene and maybe
Eugene would lend him support due to past dealings
All Factors Held Constant, Juma Mukhwana has a 90%
chance of not doing well in the by election especially if Wetangula will be on
the ballot.
·
He has already soiled his name through
his participation in Kanduyi and recently Kabuchai constituency elections (He
has that tag of political failure)
·
He ran on a New Vision Party (AMANI)
coalition, which does not have much support on the ground
·
He does not have a ground network that
Kombo and Wetangula have given they ran for countywide positions in general
election
·
He is not a career politician and thus
may not put his soul, body and mind into winning the election (he has other
interests that make politics just another option and not a life and death issue
for him)
·
Other politicians may fear supporting
him because of his intellectual and proven social capitalism prowess (if he
gets there, he may outshine some)
4.
David
Makali
He stands an 80% chance of winning the seat if
Wetangula is barred and Kombo is supported by Jubilee. He is highly regarded
among young Bukusu elites and enjoys the support of CORD. He is Fresh, Young
and could be a nice surprise..... (The new kid on the block that everyone would
be curious about).
However, should Wetangula be barred and Kombo also
steps down for another candidate like Juma Mukhwana, then his chances would be
reduced to about 60%. This is because he would enjoy CORD support but then
Jubilee leaning Politicians like Governor Lusaka would have someone that they
can sell successfully.
5.
Alfred
Khang’ati
Alfred Khang’ati has a 5% chance of being elected.
This is because his brand suffered a major dent when he dealt arrogantly with
issues as My MP (Kanduyi). He did not connect with the people and seemed to
indicate that they are just a bother. His performance in the gubernatorial
campaigns was dismal further denting his credibility as a man who can give a
county seat any serious fight.
VERDICT
·
If Wetangula is not barred, he is highly
likely to retain his seat
·
Kombo has no chance of being our senator
·
Juma Mukhwana, unless he wants to use
the platform for the future, can only be a meaningful candidate if Wetangula is
barred
·
David Makali should only try going for
the Seat if Wetangula is barred; if not, let him let the by-election pass and
start aligning himself with the right wave on which he will ride for a real
fighting chance in 2017
·
Alfred Khang’ati and the like of Bifwoli
Wakoli should focus on prayers that they get a stab at being member of
parliament once again come 2017
THESE ARE MY HUMBLE VIEWS; YOU ARE ALLOWED TO HAVE
YOURS!
Good analysis, it seems you are among the elite political pundits within Bungoma politics. Well done bwana!
ReplyDeleteInnocent Kessy, Thanks bro. I am not an Elite but I just enjoy writing my thoughts
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insight of the Bungoma politics. Wewe ni "Mutahi Ngunyi".
ReplyDeleteThanks Fulgence, am glad that you somehow agree with my opinion
Delete