WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN THE BUNGOMA SENATE BY-ELECTION?



From my intelligence, the following may just be on the ballot come the 2013 senatorial by-election in Bungoma
a.       Juma Wa Mukhwana
b.      David Makali
c.       Moses Wetangula
d.      Musikari Kombo
e.       Alfred Khang’ati
The question is, what are the chances of the above being elected senator in the by election?

1.      Moses Wetangula
He has an 80% chance of retaining the seat due to the following factors
·         He is a seasoned politician
·         He does not shy away from using any means to achieve an end
·         He is a very pragmatic and shrewd politician
·         He has many foot soldiers in the form of County Reps and other boys and girls that directly benefit from him
·         He enjoys support of many elected MPs in Western
·         He enjoys Support of CORD brigade and Raila can not dump him without damaging himself
·    The anti-Jubilee sentiment in Bungoma County is currently even stronger than it was during the general elections
·         He will receive sympathy votes; many feel he is being persecuted
·         He has the resources to share around.

He has a 20% chance of not being senator due to the by election because of the following factors
·         There is a chance that Jubilee uses courts to influence his being on the ballot
·     He has a reputation weakness e.g. He is a shrewd and cunning politician who does not stand with the populace but only furthers individual or selfish interests
·         He is suspected to have been behind recent killings after the general election
·         The Death of Lawyer Wanyama may just be used against him.

2.      MUSIKARI KOMBO
Musikari Kombo has a 10% chance of being elected Senator in the next by election. These are the factors in his favor.
·         He enjoys the support of Eugine Wamalwa (who still fools  a few with his rhetorical skills)
·         Lusaka the Governor may want to influence against Wetangula due to turf wars
·         If many candidates come in and split votes, Mt. Elgon may be the swing vote in his favour
·         Jubilee may bankroll him and thus he may enjoy state support in manipulating process
·         He may get sympathy votes on the ground that his vote was stolen

Musikari Kombo has a 90% chance of not being our senator after the by-election because of the following factors
·         Many think he is old enough and should retire
·         He lacks charisma and leadership; the reason why FORD Kenya crumbled under him
·         He is seen as a Jubilee stooge
·         The deaths in Bungoma and Killing of Lawyer Wanyama are issues he has to exonerate himself from (we can imbue a motive on him to want to paint Wetangula as the Killer)
·         Many think he is the one who has misled Eugene into making all the political blunders he is perceived to have made.

3.      Juma Mukhwana
If Kombo and Wetangula will be on the ballot, Mukhwana has a 1% chance of being our Senator. The following factors would work in his favour only if Wetangula is barred
·         He would stand a chance as a compromise candidate
·         He is a good hearted and jovial person (very warm and generous)
·         He is a professional and academic of repute
·         He is an entrepreneur and social capitalist that has been widely acknowledged
·         He already has some political experience
·         If Jubilee supported him, he would have a big machinery to ride
·         He was also cozy with Eugene and maybe Eugene would lend him support due to past dealings

All Factors Held Constant, Juma Mukhwana has a 90% chance of not doing well in the by election especially if Wetangula will be on the ballot.
·         He has already soiled his name through his participation in Kanduyi and recently Kabuchai constituency elections (He has that tag of political failure)
·         He ran on a New Vision Party (AMANI) coalition, which does not have much support on the ground
·         He does not have a ground network that Kombo and Wetangula have given they ran for countywide positions in general election
·         He is not a career politician and thus may not put his soul, body and mind into winning the election (he has other interests that make politics just another option and not a life and death issue for him)
·         Other politicians may fear supporting him because of his intellectual and proven social capitalism prowess (if he gets there, he may outshine some)

4.      David Makali
He stands an 80% chance of winning the seat if Wetangula is barred and Kombo is supported by Jubilee. He is highly regarded among young Bukusu elites and enjoys the support of CORD. He is Fresh, Young and could be a nice surprise..... (The new kid on the block that everyone would be curious about).
However, should Wetangula be barred and Kombo also steps down for another candidate like Juma Mukhwana, then his chances would be reduced to about 60%. This is because he would enjoy CORD support but then Jubilee leaning Politicians like Governor Lusaka would have someone that they can sell successfully.

5.      Alfred Khang’ati
Alfred Khang’ati has a 5% chance of being elected. This is because his brand suffered a major dent when he dealt arrogantly with issues as My MP (Kanduyi). He did not connect with the people and seemed to indicate that they are just a bother. His performance in the gubernatorial campaigns was dismal further denting his credibility as a man who can give a county seat any serious fight.

VERDICT
·         If Wetangula is not barred, he is highly likely to retain his seat
·         Kombo has no chance of being our senator
·         Juma Mukhwana, unless he wants to use the platform for the future, can only be a meaningful candidate if Wetangula is barred
·         David Makali should only try going for the Seat if Wetangula is barred; if not, let him let the by-election pass and start aligning himself with the right wave on which he will ride for a real fighting chance in 2017
·         Alfred Khang’ati and the like of Bifwoli Wakoli should focus on prayers that they get a stab at being member of parliament once again come 2017

THESE ARE MY HUMBLE VIEWS; YOU ARE ALLOWED TO HAVE YOURS!

Comments

  1. Good analysis, it seems you are among the elite political pundits within Bungoma politics. Well done bwana!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Innocent Kessy, Thanks bro. I am not an Elite but I just enjoy writing my thoughts

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the insight of the Bungoma politics. Wewe ni "Mutahi Ngunyi".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Fulgence, am glad that you somehow agree with my opinion

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