WHY THE CORD REFERENDUM IS POOR STRATEGY



The dance floor is full and cheers from the watching crowd are abundant. Every dancer is pulling his or her best strokes and he or she is sure he or she is attracting the cheers. This dance is colorful, it is exciting and it has sent every tongue wagging either in praise or in jeer.
Please Raila, stop the dance! Stop dancing and watch the dance a little more. No don’t just watch so you may jump back into the dance, but so you may decide if the dance is worthy or we should move to another arena. The dance as currently constituted has many armature players or dancers. For the armature player; the focus is on winning the dance by all means. By hook or crook, in the most Machiavelli way possible they are determined to win the dance.
The armature players have a toddler mentality or what is referred to as the “Me” syndrome. They do not care about the dance, they are not interested in principles, they care not about values or honor. All they want is to win the dance and all focus to be on them. Even when they are in the spotlight, they are so jealous and suspicious of other players, they would not want to allow them a little space. They declare “it is our time”, they are reckless and they imagine no one is entitled to his or her own persuasion. They do not want to see any bystander rocking his or her head to the tune of the music. They have forgotten to dance, they are more focused on who else is also nodding or moving his body to the music and yet it is their time in the spot light. They make all the wrong moves then quickly they cry victims and blame other parties in the dance or bystanders in the arena.
Raila you are an idealist dancer. You have always stood for nationalism and inclusivity in government. However, in your rallying troops to come to the arena and participate in dance, ethnicity became the banner of your strategy and style. Unfortunate as it was, like a wolf that has tasted blood, your time as the prime minister was a poisoned chalice. You drank the cup of power and popularity and now you are of no capacity for real grassroots based strategy. You crave the podium and all your strategies are high podium oriented. You have become the doomed buffalo surrounded by a pack of hyenas. The hyenas laugh with glee as they hang on your popularity and the power symbol you have become.
Please Raila stop the dance; stop arming your opponents. Stop making your moves; let your opponents move first because you are under no obligation to be the first to move. You have the privilege of not being the government and thus you could successfully use the wait and strike strategy. We all know, without your voice the arena is dull. Without the master dancer on the floor, the dance is boring. In your designed strategic absence, the rookies will pull all their moves that lack refined grace and intensity. They will open their naked tactlessness! You know what, all their strategies start and end with you. As long as the master dancer is on the floor, every other rookie moves to the master’s strokes and the imitations may just be taken for mastery.
You have done enough dear Raila, know when enough is enough. If I were you, I would befriend silence and obscurity at this point in time. Stop engaging Jubilee and give them room to blunder. You do not need to continuously engage your constituency, they are loyal and they believe you as their leader. The more you engage them in flexing your muscles, the more you expose your weak points; please embrace invisibility. In the meantime, focus on party disciple and making elected leaders in the coalition deliver to Wananchi. Work with elected CORD MPs, Senators and Governors to deliver on real needs of the people. Stop the dance and let all those politicians around you go back to the grassroots. Instead of running around clutching on your skirt, let the likes of Wetangula go back to Luhya land and work the grassroots. Let it be that these rookies in your coalition are doing right with the people so that the coalition benefits from them as small brands.
Please Raila, Stop the Dance Sir; forget the referendum and engage people in ways that are move livelihood transforming. Your best political strategies remaining is appealing to our sympathy, massive grassroots mobilization in CORD strongholds and outwitting Jubilee by letting them make the mistakes as you use the mistakes to appeal to some Jubilee constituencies. Let them make their mistakes! Take a podium politics sabbatical and engage the grassroots for real. Where is Mama Ida to engage our women in constructive engagements? Visit counties and let us see you fundraising to develop schools, supporting civil society activities. Why don’t you try and do some listening in the meantime. Come to us and let us talk one on one with us on issues that really affect us. Hear us out dear Raila! Please stop the podium politics or exchanging diatribes with Jubilee. Let us see you launching CORD funded youth activities like a national football tournament etc.
 If you do not stop the dance, we are headed back to a very polarized electioneering in 2017. Many may still stand with you but definitely, you will deliver a great political loss again. The state will be against you. Ruto may choose to kill his presidential ambition; nobody should cheat Ruto that he will be elected president after 10 years as incumbent deputy president. If Ruto sticks with the President Uhuru (Of course he is Uhuru’s only life line for a second term in office) then only strong grassroots mobilization and management will deliver an opposition win. Raila should not loose himself in complicated processes like the referendum; which is a two edged sword. The referendum can only work in favor of CORD if Jubilee opposes referendum and CORD wins the referendum. Unfortunately, Jubilee may just ride on CORD efforts and play the referendum to its advantage. Such a strategy is a gamble; it is a wrong dance!

Comments

  1. Liked the reference to ethnicity. You qualified it as self-agrandisation and i would, in my analysis soon to appear, add self-deprication. Keep blogging!

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for your encouraging remark. Will be glad to read you analysis when it appears. You can read more of my thoughts on ethnicity in this post
      http://wafulagiddy.blogspot.co.ke/2014/07/understanding-tribalism-in-kenya.html

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    2. I saw it. My analysis of tribalism sits on 'meta' FS methodology of ntu/structuration that is being developed in preparation for the second edition of my book. I hope to develop a model that enables Africanists to understand situations better I hope! Keep blogging, you and your readerscan also follow us at www.swipel.net

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    3. Thanks, quite some exciting stuff you have on swipel. I will sure follow

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